Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
